* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP162026 09/22/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 59 63 69 70 65 60 53 48 44 40 38 35 34 34 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 59 63 69 70 65 60 53 48 44 40 38 35 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 54 56 60 59 56 53 49 44 41 39 36 34 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 10 10 11 11 2 11 9 8 13 15 15 15 22 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 4 8 9 16 17 3 6 5 1 2 2 2 2 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 45 46 8 12 359 5 336 297 285 272 203 217 200 204 184 178 188 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.4 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 153 152 151 150 149 146 143 136 142 137 132 129 129 133 133 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.5 -50.7 -50.0 -50.0 -50.0 -50.2 -49.6 -49.7 -49.2 -49.3 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 4 700-500 MB RH 75 72 70 67 64 57 52 45 43 42 41 45 54 56 56 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 23 24 26 26 23 23 20 19 17 15 14 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 14 17 27 37 42 64 79 80 77 77 86 77 125 124 104 93 87 200 MB DIV 102 98 109 106 102 64 13 12 -9 -33 -32 -3 7 -7 -21 2 -9 700-850 TADV 2 4 4 5 7 5 4 3 0 0 0 2 8 14 26 27 8 LAND (KM) 2191 2164 2137 2090 2043 1943 1824 1667 1532 1404 1267 1137 1004 932 895 824 705 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.4 16.0 16.7 17.4 18.3 19.2 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.2 130.2 130.1 129.7 129.3 128.1 126.7 125.2 124.1 123.1 122.2 121.4 120.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 19 18 18 15 12 12 8 2 6 7 4 3 2 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 5. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 6. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 24. 25. 20. 15. 8. 3. -1. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.1 130.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162026 ODALYS 09/22/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.66 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.30 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.67 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.4 60.4 to 0.0 0.79 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -58.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.58 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 29.6% 19.7% 15.5% 12.1% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 20.4% 6.9% 4.2% 0.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.6% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 17.2% 9.2% 6.7% 4.2% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 17.0% 12.0% 6.0% 5.0% 12.0% 9.0% 1.0% SDCON: 7.1% 17.1% 10.6% 6.3% 4.6% 9.3% 4.5% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162026 ODALYS 09/22/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##