* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP162026 09/21/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 60 64 70 72 67 62 59 51 46 44 41 39 38 38 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 60 64 70 72 67 62 59 51 46 44 41 39 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 54 57 61 62 59 55 51 47 43 41 39 38 37 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 12 10 10 13 7 6 9 9 8 14 13 13 13 24 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 5 4 7 8 15 7 4 5 4 1 4 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 28 44 45 8 8 354 359 293 298 275 209 213 197 187 172 172 198 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.7 28.3 27.1 27.5 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 153 152 150 148 151 146 133 136 140 138 135 135 139 133 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 -50.3 -50.0 -50.1 -50.1 -50.1 -49.9 -49.8 -49.3 -49.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 75 75 71 71 66 58 55 49 46 45 43 43 50 53 51 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 21 23 24 26 23 22 22 19 17 16 14 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 28 12 18 26 36 54 74 83 76 71 79 88 87 162 131 110 88 200 MB DIV 92 100 97 104 106 90 36 8 25 -29 -45 -11 3 2 -4 -20 -8 700-850 TADV -2 2 4 5 5 7 5 4 2 0 0 2 4 9 11 25 14 LAND (KM) 2176 2160 2145 2106 2067 1959 1868 1728 1557 1424 1317 1234 1151 1114 1091 941 683 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.7 18.3 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.7 129.9 130.1 129.8 129.5 128.3 127.2 125.7 124.1 123.0 122.3 121.8 121.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 4 5 5 6 8 7 6 4 4 3 1 4 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 19 17 19 15 12 15 12 1 1 7 9 7 6 6 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 6. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 15. 19. 25. 27. 22. 17. 14. 6. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.8 129.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162026 ODALYS 09/21/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.67 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.35 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 4.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.7 60.4 to 0.0 0.86 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -71.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.75 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 40.5% 20.9% 16.4% 12.8% 21.5% 17.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 32.1% 10.4% 7.0% 1.2% 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.1% 2.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.2% 25.0% 10.8% 8.0% 4.7% 7.9% 5.8% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 13.0% 9.0% 5.0% 6.0% 13.0% 17.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.6% 19.0% 9.9% 6.5% 5.3% 10.4% 11.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162026 ODALYS 09/21/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##