* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP162026 09/21/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 43 46 49 51 51 49 46 45 43 40 38 36 37 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 41 43 46 49 51 51 49 46 45 43 40 38 36 37 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 38 39 41 42 41 39 35 33 31 29 27 25 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 12 10 7 10 17 8 10 13 14 11 16 21 20 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 3 4 9 9 13 9 4 4 1 2 4 0 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 23 28 37 45 11 8 10 343 309 297 299 207 200 197 196 186 153 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 153 151 149 150 147 147 143 139 140 140 137 131 129 131 134 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -50.7 -50.8 -50.1 -50.1 -50.0 -50.2 -49.7 -49.6 -48.8 -48.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 70 68 69 66 59 53 49 42 42 39 39 45 54 59 65 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 18 18 21 21 24 23 22 21 19 18 16 13 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 39 31 24 31 40 52 76 89 97 86 85 96 72 80 154 156 131 200 MB DIV 67 77 62 67 81 67 52 14 -6 -19 -34 -9 8 0 4 -3 14 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 1 3 5 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 7 5 11 5 LAND (KM) 2139 2133 2129 2121 2113 2052 1958 1859 1730 1601 1457 1321 1198 1120 1073 961 800 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.3 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.6 16.1 16.7 17.5 18.3 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.1 129.6 130.1 130.2 130.3 129.6 128.6 127.4 126.2 125.1 124.0 123.0 122.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 2 2 4 5 6 6 6 7 6 4 3 3 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 19 19 20 17 16 13 8 5 5 7 7 6 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):308/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 9. 6. 5. 3. -0. -2. -4. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.7 129.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162026 ODALYS 09/21/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.71 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.43 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.18 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.78 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -67.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.69 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 19.7% 14.9% 12.1% 9.1% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 8.8% 2.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 9.5% 5.7% 4.4% 3.1% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 6.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.8% 6.7% 3.8% 2.7% 2.0% 4.1% 3.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162026 ODALYS 09/21/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##