* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP162026 09/21/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 39 40 43 47 51 51 49 46 42 39 39 37 33 30 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 39 40 43 47 51 51 49 46 42 39 39 37 33 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 36 36 37 39 40 39 36 33 30 27 24 22 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 17 13 10 8 14 11 8 15 22 24 21 19 23 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 1 3 6 11 13 9 6 7 1 1 3 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 12 20 21 35 34 4 3 1 316 295 310 294 276 230 231 209 185 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.4 26.6 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 158 154 152 151 150 149 147 135 135 137 137 136 127 123 123 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -50.1 -50.1 -50.1 -50.2 -49.7 -49.4 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 71 68 68 66 63 57 51 40 36 34 33 36 43 53 60 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 18 19 18 21 23 25 22 22 21 19 17 17 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 46 36 32 23 27 40 62 92 107 117 114 94 92 54 41 83 161 200 MB DIV 71 52 61 69 61 69 49 8 1 -8 -16 -27 -15 -3 0 3 28 700-850 TADV -8 -4 -3 0 2 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 4 7 8 6 LAND (KM) 2114 2115 2121 2122 2121 2082 2005 1919 1789 1658 1543 1405 1275 1145 1038 985 970 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.9 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.8 17.5 18.4 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.3 129.0 129.7 130.0 130.4 130.1 129.2 128.3 127.0 126.0 125.2 124.3 123.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 5 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 19 19 24 21 17 16 9 3 3 8 8 6 2 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 18. 17. 17. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -1. 1. 4. 7. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -0. 3. 7. 11. 11. 9. 6. 2. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.3 128.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162026 ODALYS 09/21/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.74 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.30 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 60.4 to 0.0 0.88 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -51.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.47 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 18.1% 13.7% 11.2% 8.5% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.8% 4.7% 3.8% 2.8% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 4.4% 2.8% 1.9% 1.4% 3.7% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162026 ODALYS 09/21/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##