* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP162026 09/21/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 49 53 55 59 62 60 57 52 52 48 49 46 42 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 49 53 55 59 62 60 57 52 52 48 49 46 42 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 48 48 50 52 55 56 54 51 48 45 43 40 36 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 16 17 10 9 10 17 8 10 16 18 15 15 20 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 1 0 0 3 7 3 6 4 3 0 2 2 5 6 5 SHEAR DIR 1 8 12 15 28 17 14 2 341 309 309 315 289 260 232 223 214 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.0 26.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 161 158 153 149 149 148 147 143 134 136 136 136 132 121 114 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -50.1 -50.3 -49.9 -50.1 -49.8 -49.8 -48.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 74 73 71 69 69 66 62 55 49 42 40 37 36 38 49 56 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 20 20 23 23 26 27 27 25 23 23 21 21 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 36 48 38 31 29 29 44 73 91 108 105 109 99 73 55 29 35 200 MB DIV 69 63 60 76 62 71 63 31 -7 11 7 -3 -8 -32 -21 5 17 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -3 -3 0 3 4 5 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 9 12 LAND (KM) 2081 2084 2085 2079 2075 2044 2005 1935 1843 1743 1643 1520 1381 1258 1146 1048 957 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.7 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.3 128.0 128.7 129.2 129.7 129.8 129.3 128.5 127.4 126.6 125.9 125.1 124.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 5 1 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 17 17 19 20 18 16 15 7 2 4 7 8 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 10. 8. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 14. 17. 15. 12. 7. 7. 3. 4. 1. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.8 127.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162026 ODALYS 09/21/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.70 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.30 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.49 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.17 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.92 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -43.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.37 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 19.6% 15.9% 13.4% 10.2% 19.4% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 7.1% 5.4% 4.5% 3.4% 6.5% 5.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.9% 5.5% 3.7% 2.7% 2.2% 4.2% 3.8% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162026 ODALYS 09/21/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##