* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP162026 09/20/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 56 57 61 63 68 70 66 63 59 56 55 53 50 47 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 56 57 61 63 68 70 66 63 59 56 55 53 50 47 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 54 56 59 63 64 62 58 55 52 50 46 43 38 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 16 15 15 12 15 21 14 8 7 14 13 14 18 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 0 2 6 3 8 5 6 1 0 6 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 2 9 6 14 13 7 6 10 13 349 272 292 306 278 241 236 236 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.3 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 159 160 160 156 156 155 152 149 149 142 141 139 136 135 128 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.4 -50.4 -50.2 -50.5 -50.3 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 74 73 68 66 61 55 44 44 41 35 33 36 43 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 19 21 21 23 24 27 29 27 25 23 22 21 19 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 33 32 40 40 36 29 43 68 96 110 113 101 102 94 72 53 34 200 MB DIV 98 83 76 88 80 75 86 35 15 -17 8 -12 -4 -20 -26 -2 5 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -7 -3 0 1 3 4 3 4 1 1 1 2 4 8 8 LAND (KM) 2098 2111 2129 2122 2117 2121 2067 1983 1938 1862 1742 1620 1526 1407 1289 1174 1076 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.1 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.3 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.7 16.4 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.2 127.0 127.8 128.3 128.8 129.5 129.1 128.2 127.7 127.0 125.9 125.0 124.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 8 7 6 3 3 4 3 5 6 5 5 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 12 13 15 17 17 18 16 12 14 10 6 9 8 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. 20. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 7. 13. 17. 13. 10. 7. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 12. 16. 18. 23. 25. 21. 18. 14. 11. 10. 8. 5. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.5 126.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162026 ODALYS 09/20/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.72 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.30 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.58 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.14 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.98 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -75.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.80 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 25.5% 19.0% 15.9% 11.9% 22.0% 18.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 12.2% 2.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 12.9% 7.2% 5.8% 4.1% 7.6% 6.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 11.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 2.0% SDCON: 7.9% 10.4% 6.6% 4.9% 3.5% 6.8% 7.7% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162026 ODALYS 09/20/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##