* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP162026 09/20/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 50 55 59 66 71 73 76 76 72 68 67 61 56 53 49 V (KT) LAND 40 46 50 55 59 66 71 73 76 76 72 68 67 61 56 53 49 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 52 56 61 67 72 74 74 71 66 64 63 60 54 48 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 17 17 14 12 9 14 13 11 7 10 3 9 17 20 26 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 1 0 3 4 8 9 9 1 4 2 -3 1 3 2 SHEAR DIR 3 7 3 351 13 4 360 357 9 3 356 350 236 216 217 215 222 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 161 159 160 157 154 153 152 150 149 145 142 138 139 138 130 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -50.9 -51.2 -51.4 -50.9 -51.4 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -50.4 -50.7 -50.6 -50.9 -50.6 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 77 75 74 72 72 69 65 62 54 45 41 40 36 34 35 39 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 19 19 21 24 26 28 28 26 23 23 20 16 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 34 30 31 42 44 32 34 58 89 113 115 120 115 101 73 33 12 200 MB DIV 81 97 85 79 98 93 96 86 61 0 -17 -6 9 0 22 11 27 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -5 -4 -2 0 2 2 1 2 2 0 0 1 0 6 8 LAND (KM) 2059 2063 2072 2081 2083 2075 2067 2013 1952 1885 1802 1704 1565 1464 1385 1251 1076 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.7 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.4 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.4 15.9 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.2 126.0 126.7 127.4 128.1 129.0 129.3 128.7 128.0 127.2 126.4 125.6 124.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 5 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 4 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 14 13 14 16 18 18 16 13 13 11 8 6 9 8 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. 25. 25. 25. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 9. 13. 18. 19. 15. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 15. 19. 26. 31. 33. 36. 36. 32. 28. 27. 21. 16. 13. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.1 125.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162026 ODALYS 09/20/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.76 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.42 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.59 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.16 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.93 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -61.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.61 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 27.6% 20.2% 16.8% 12.8% 22.8% 19.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 25.1% 8.7% 6.1% 1.9% 3.0% 1.3% 0.8% Bayesian: 3.8% 6.9% 2.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 7.0% 19.8% 10.4% 7.9% 5.1% 8.8% 7.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 5.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 31.0% SDCON: 6.0% 13.9% 8.2% 6.9% 5.0% 7.4% 7.0% 15.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162026 ODALYS 09/20/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##