* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP162026 09/20/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 44 49 54 59 65 72 73 71 67 65 61 58 54 49 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 44 49 54 59 65 72 73 71 67 65 61 58 54 49 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 42 45 48 54 58 61 63 63 59 54 51 47 42 37 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 19 15 13 12 10 7 6 7 14 10 20 25 27 34 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 0 1 0 4 9 5 1 6 3 3 0 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 355 3 3 10 4 360 328 356 316 262 267 273 235 244 241 220 223 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 28.9 28.4 28.6 28.9 27.2 27.6 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.2 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 160 160 160 159 151 147 150 153 134 139 140 136 130 125 111 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 75 76 73 73 73 68 65 62 58 54 50 50 48 41 39 41 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 15 18 19 21 23 26 26 26 23 22 20 17 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 33 36 30 31 34 22 24 36 58 69 66 61 73 62 53 29 30 200 MB DIV 85 76 84 66 57 69 66 87 50 22 0 -1 11 6 -3 12 24 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -6 -6 -5 -2 2 2 3 3 3 0 2 4 7 6 13 LAND (KM) 1981 2028 2060 2072 2072 2018 1952 1859 1734 1577 1405 1284 1174 1102 1068 1065 1022 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.6 12.1 12.7 14.1 15.0 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.7 17.7 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.2 125.0 125.8 126.5 127.1 127.9 128.0 127.3 125.8 124.0 122.5 121.9 121.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 6 4 6 8 9 6 7 5 5 6 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 18 15 14 14 15 16 13 14 18 2 2 7 7 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 28. 28. 27. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 15. 15. 14. 10. 7. 4. 2. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 14. 19. 24. 30. 37. 38. 36. 32. 30. 26. 23. 19. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.2 124.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162026 ODALYS 09/20/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.79 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.45 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.18 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -44.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.39 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 22.4% 18.3% 15.1% 11.6% 21.4% 18.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 11.2% 3.1% 1.8% 0.5% 1.4% 2.6% 1.7% Bayesian: 3.3% 8.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 13.9% 7.6% 5.7% 4.1% 7.6% 7.1% 0.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 10.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0% 11.0% 9.0% SDCON: 3.7% 11.9% 6.3% 3.8% 3.0% 6.3% 9.0% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162026 ODALYS 09/20/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##