* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NOLO EP152026 09/25/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 73 75 73 72 69 69 68 63 64 62 58 56 54 51 V (KT) LAND 60 65 69 73 75 73 72 69 69 68 63 64 62 58 56 54 51 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 69 71 70 67 63 64 68 73 74 70 64 57 52 50 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 14 13 11 9 9 1 4 12 22 35 37 29 15 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 4 9 3 -8 -3 -3 -2 1 3 0 2 3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 152 151 162 150 131 131 100 142 147 218 218 223 222 233 230 266 253 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.4 27.3 27.7 27.7 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 141 139 137 137 144 144 145 144 137 135 139 139 135 133 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -50.9 -51.5 -51.0 -51.0 -50.6 -50.3 -49.7 -50.0 -50.7 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 74 73 71 65 64 50 44 44 43 48 50 56 57 42 33 27 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 25 26 26 24 23 23 25 26 24 27 28 27 27 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR 123 136 132 129 137 133 130 140 139 129 94 80 70 88 99 89 83 200 MB DIV 122 109 75 59 80 40 -39 -38 -3 1 51 10 57 -9 0 -13 16 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 -1 0 -1 1 7 10 7 4 0 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 448 391 336 287 239 170 146 269 431 391 391 460 538 638 735 838 952 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.4 17.8 17.7 17.9 18.7 20.2 21.7 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 156.0 155.8 155.6 155.5 155.3 155.5 156.4 158.0 160.1 162.0 163.6 164.7 165.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 4 4 6 9 10 10 10 8 6 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 27 26 23 22 21 18 25 30 27 23 14 15 21 21 14 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 3. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 15. 13. 12. 9. 9. 8. 3. 4. 2. -2. -4. -6. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.9 156.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 NOLO 09/25/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.44 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.42 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.60 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 8.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 4.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.25 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -45.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.40 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.1% 36.0% 31.1% 24.1% 17.9% 22.1% 17.3% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 8.4% 2.4% 1.8% 0.3% 1.6% 1.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 12.3% 10.7% 6.8% 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.6% 18.4% 13.4% 9.8% 6.1% 7.9% 6.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 36.0% 39.0% 24.0% 18.0% 12.0% 13.0% 12.0% 38.0% SDCON: 25.3% 28.7% 18.7% 13.9% 9.0% 10.4% 9.1% 19.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 NOLO 09/25/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##