* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NOLO EP152026 09/24/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 59 61 61 58 57 55 56 59 57 56 55 54 51 48 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 59 61 61 58 57 55 56 59 57 56 55 54 51 48 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 60 61 61 57 53 52 55 58 60 58 53 49 45 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 12 14 14 8 6 2 1 5 11 21 33 31 40 29 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -1 0 9 4 -2 -3 -5 0 1 3 4 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 139 154 148 168 176 140 144 196 312 136 211 228 230 236 236 238 253 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.6 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.5 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 141 142 141 138 137 138 143 144 145 144 138 136 137 138 135 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -50.6 -50.3 -50.4 -50.6 -51.1 -51.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 73 71 73 71 71 64 53 47 49 49 52 51 58 61 47 34 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 23 23 23 22 21 20 21 23 22 23 23 23 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR 118 123 127 135 136 131 126 126 140 130 111 91 74 59 70 70 70 200 MB DIV 75 100 106 116 69 36 25 -6 -18 9 -1 16 5 64 5 -19 -32 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 9 12 16 12 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 449 421 392 341 291 215 170 166 281 427 401 393 419 483 576 713 860 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.9 16.3 17.0 17.4 17.6 17.5 17.8 18.5 19.6 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 156.1 156.0 155.9 155.8 155.6 155.4 155.5 156.4 158.0 159.8 161.8 163.2 164.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 4 2 3 6 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 26 25 23 22 21 20 25 29 27 26 12 15 16 15 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 8. 7. 5. 6. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.9 156.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 NOLO 09/24/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.52 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.52 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.62 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.25 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -57.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.56 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 24.6% 20.9% 17.5% 14.0% 22.3% 17.5% 13.6% Logistic: 3.1% 8.1% 2.9% 1.8% 0.5% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 8.2% 2.8% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 11.8% 8.6% 6.6% 4.9% 8.1% 6.2% 4.7% DTOPS: 8.0% 33.0% 17.0% 10.0% 7.0% 14.0% 23.0% 1.0% SDCON: 8.0% 22.4% 12.8% 8.3% 5.9% 11.0% 14.6% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 NOLO 09/24/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##