* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NOLO EP152026 09/24/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 52 54 53 51 54 55 57 56 56 58 55 56 54 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 52 54 53 51 54 55 57 56 56 58 55 56 54 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 50 52 53 50 46 47 49 52 55 58 59 55 51 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 9 12 15 8 6 3 1 1 2 6 19 36 45 48 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 0 6 9 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 -4 -8 SHEAR DIR 121 135 151 164 180 170 119 49 314 107 182 206 223 235 226 230 215 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 28.1 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 146 146 145 144 138 140 144 143 142 141 146 138 136 137 134 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.1 -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -50.7 -50.8 -50.4 -50.5 -50.8 -50.9 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 72 72 69 71 73 69 57 51 50 50 53 56 57 62 63 60 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 21 21 22 24 21 19 21 22 23 22 23 27 25 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 118 123 127 125 135 135 133 119 132 130 120 104 96 77 75 75 67 200 MB DIV 85 82 98 106 105 31 56 -15 -34 -13 20 22 35 32 62 0 18 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -2 0 -4 -1 0 5 6 8 7 6 8 LAND (KM) 459 433 406 364 325 239 158 147 213 293 387 375 403 442 475 637 889 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.8 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.6 17.8 18.5 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 156.0 156.1 156.2 155.9 155.6 155.3 155.1 155.7 157.1 158.2 159.3 161.0 163.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 5 4 4 2 5 6 5 7 10 11 9 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 28 30 30 26 23 23 28 28 24 20 26 13 12 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 5. 6. 7. 5. 5. 8. 6. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 13. 11. 14. 15. 17. 16. 16. 18. 15. 16. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.8 156.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 NOLO 09/24/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.64 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.63 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.30 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -37.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.30 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 21.5% 19.2% 16.2% 13.1% 21.3% 18.1% 15.1% Logistic: 1.3% 4.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 3.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 5.3% 9.1% 7.1% 5.7% 4.5% 7.5% 6.4% 5.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 22.0% 9.0% 4.0% 4.0% 25.0% 53.0% 89.0% SDCON: 3.6% 15.5% 8.0% 4.8% 4.2% 16.2% 29.7% 47.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 NOLO 09/24/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##