* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NOLO EP152026 09/24/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 53 55 61 60 57 55 57 55 57 54 55 54 50 48 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 53 55 61 60 57 55 57 55 57 54 55 54 50 48 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 52 55 58 56 52 51 52 53 55 58 56 50 43 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 16 15 13 12 6 3 3 4 0 11 20 36 39 46 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 1 0 0 2 10 5 0 -4 0 1 4 5 2 -11 -7 SHEAR DIR 88 105 117 127 142 171 164 70 359 291 108 223 214 228 231 227 225 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.5 27.2 27.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 145 146 146 145 141 138 142 144 143 144 145 139 135 140 132 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.6 -51.1 -51.4 -50.9 -51.5 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -50.5 -50.5 -50.2 -50.2 -50.6 -51.1 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 69 70 68 59 51 48 52 52 56 55 62 64 56 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 23 22 25 22 21 21 24 22 24 23 26 25 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 110 121 128 127 127 137 129 123 127 144 150 141 123 106 88 68 54 200 MB DIV 69 89 88 106 126 73 25 2 -8 -21 22 21 37 44 49 -10 22 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -3 -4 -2 1 0 1 0 -1 2 5 9 18 18 13 9 LAND (KM) 480 465 449 420 391 304 200 137 161 278 435 418 385 442 536 642 755 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.4 16.2 17.2 17.7 17.8 17.7 17.6 18.2 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 155.8 156.0 156.1 156.0 155.8 155.4 155.1 155.5 156.7 158.1 159.7 161.4 163.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 2 3 4 5 4 4 6 7 8 9 10 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 29 29 30 32 29 27 21 24 28 28 26 27 14 15 21 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 443 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 3. 4. 7. 5. 7. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 15. 21. 20. 17. 15. 17. 15. 17. 14. 15. 14. 10. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.6 155.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 NOLO 09/24/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.65 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.44 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.63 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.31 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -41.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.34 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 22.6% 19.6% 16.2% 13.0% 22.2% 18.7% 14.9% Logistic: 0.9% 3.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.8% 2.5% 1.2% Bayesian: 1.4% 7.4% 3.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% Consensus: 4.6% 11.0% 7.9% 5.8% 4.5% 7.8% 7.1% 5.6% DTOPS: 12.0% 39.0% 21.0% 8.0% 5.0% 12.0% 14.0% 10.0% SDCON: 8.3% 25.0% 14.4% 6.9% 4.7% 9.9% 10.5% 7.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 NOLO 09/24/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##