* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/23/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 47 50 50 46 46 51 53 52 53 53 51 49 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 47 50 50 46 46 51 53 52 53 53 51 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 39 40 38 36 36 39 43 46 49 49 45 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 16 15 17 13 8 6 1 3 1 7 11 21 37 42 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -2 0 0 3 7 2 -2 -2 -1 1 5 4 3 -8 SHEAR DIR 92 84 105 121 131 158 178 165 356 37 127 176 194 206 221 219 232 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.8 28.2 27.9 27.8 28.1 27.4 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 147 148 145 143 139 138 141 145 142 142 145 137 135 137 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.5 -50.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 -50.6 -50.2 -50.2 -50.3 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 72 74 75 75 72 72 64 54 49 49 48 52 55 57 62 61 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 20 21 21 24 23 22 20 20 23 24 23 25 25 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 108 107 118 128 130 146 144 135 123 140 148 140 119 95 79 69 43 200 MB DIV 44 60 85 83 118 97 59 6 -26 -26 -21 22 37 34 17 42 0 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 -3 -5 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 8 5 12 8 LAND (KM) 495 475 458 436 414 316 214 146 74 119 266 382 309 317 419 521 622 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.2 16.1 17.1 17.9 18.3 18.2 17.9 18.2 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 155.1 155.5 155.8 155.8 155.7 155.3 155.0 154.8 155.4 156.6 158.1 159.7 161.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 2 2 4 5 5 3 4 6 8 8 9 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 29 29 30 32 30 27 21 19 22 27 23 18 25 13 14 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 455 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 4. 4. 8. 9. 7. 8. 7. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 20. 20. 16. 16. 21. 23. 22. 23. 23. 21. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 155.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/23/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.74 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.55 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 1.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.31 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -36.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.28 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 17.5% 14.9% 12.5% 0.0% 18.1% 17.0% 14.9% Logistic: 0.8% 3.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.8% 2.4% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 2.9% 7.6% 5.3% 4.3% 0.1% 6.3% 6.5% 5.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 20.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 12.0% 31.0% 68.0% SDCON: 2.4% 13.8% 6.1% 3.1% 0.5% 9.1% 18.7% 36.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/23/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##