* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/23/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 54 59 58 52 51 52 51 56 56 54 53 52 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 54 59 58 52 51 52 51 56 56 54 53 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 43 50 53 51 47 46 49 52 57 61 64 63 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 15 16 15 16 14 9 0 7 8 7 6 11 22 29 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 1 2 5 4 -1 -2 -2 -3 -6 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 117 89 89 110 119 139 170 158 181 315 323 340 301 228 224 233 229 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.1 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 147 147 146 144 140 136 139 143 144 140 142 142 135 134 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -50.5 -50.7 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -50.9 -50.8 -50.5 -50.6 -50.5 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 72 75 75 74 71 67 58 51 47 50 47 52 51 52 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 20 21 22 24 22 20 20 23 22 26 27 27 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR 112 108 103 112 120 126 135 130 118 119 130 127 128 105 74 45 26 200 MB DIV 58 38 49 75 83 104 80 13 -11 -8 -31 4 32 66 68 43 -11 700-850 TADV 1 1 -1 -2 -2 -2 1 0 0 -4 -6 -1 0 3 5 6 1 LAND (KM) 523 494 471 458 448 369 252 153 98 36 129 279 353 278 296 382 464 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.6 16.7 17.7 18.4 18.6 18.4 18.3 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 154.3 154.8 155.3 155.6 155.9 155.6 155.2 155.0 154.9 155.6 156.9 158.4 159.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 5 4 3 3 5 5 5 2 5 7 7 8 10 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 29 30 29 33 27 22 16 24 27 25 20 18 17 13 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 9. 13. 14. 16. 18. 19. 21. 21. 23. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 9. 9. 6. 7. 10. 9. 12. 12. 11. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 24. 29. 28. 22. 21. 22. 21. 26. 26. 24. 23. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.4 154.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/23/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.75 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.46 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.30 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -37.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.29 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 20.0% 17.0% 14.0% 0.0% 20.1% 18.0% 15.3% Logistic: 3.2% 11.6% 3.3% 2.1% 1.0% 2.6% 4.8% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 8.2% 2.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.8% Consensus: 4.7% 13.3% 7.6% 5.6% 0.4% 7.8% 7.8% 6.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 22.0% 10.0% 2.0% 1.0% 8.0% 11.0% 41.0% SDCON: 3.3% 17.6% 8.8% 3.8% 0.7% 7.9% 9.4% 23.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/23/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##