* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/23/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 43 49 57 62 65 60 59 62 65 64 68 66 66 66 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 43 49 57 62 65 60 59 62 65 64 68 66 66 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 51 57 59 56 55 59 65 72 80 84 83 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 12 17 15 16 11 7 3 2 6 3 7 8 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -4 -3 0 3 4 3 -1 -1 -4 -2 -5 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 140 143 100 91 102 120 145 152 126 58 348 17 351 268 251 236 222 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.7 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 149 148 148 147 146 144 137 139 144 145 144 145 144 144 139 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.1 -51.2 -50.7 -50.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 75 76 74 67 63 56 48 51 52 51 52 53 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 16 18 20 21 22 20 21 24 27 26 32 30 32 32 850 MB ENV VOR 112 109 103 102 112 128 135 137 130 119 134 134 128 123 106 76 70 200 MB DIV 92 73 36 49 75 116 100 32 4 -28 -28 -16 41 53 36 36 29 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 -2 -3 -2 1 -4 -4 -8 -3 -2 1 2 5 4 LAND (KM) 608 550 505 491 482 427 337 226 138 103 185 293 392 390 446 510 553 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 153.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 4 3 3 5 5 2 4 6 7 8 9 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 25 28 29 32 29 28 20 20 31 28 27 26 30 24 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 17. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 9. 11. 14. 17. 14. 19. 16. 16. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 19. 27. 32. 35. 30. 29. 32. 35. 34. 38. 36. 36. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 153.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/23/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.76 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.70 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.48 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.28 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -35.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.27 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 23.5% 19.6% 15.7% 0.0% 22.3% 22.2% 16.6% Logistic: 2.6% 8.6% 2.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.6% 9.3% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 9.7% 3.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 2.1% Consensus: 5.0% 14.0% 8.6% 6.1% 0.3% 8.4% 10.6% 7.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 13.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 8.0% 34.0% 15.0% SDCON: 3.5% 13.5% 6.8% 3.5% 0.6% 8.2% 22.3% 11.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/23/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##