* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/23/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 38 42 52 60 64 62 59 57 60 63 65 64 63 63 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 38 42 52 60 64 62 59 57 60 63 65 64 63 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 30 32 39 46 51 52 50 51 56 64 74 79 80 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 6 9 15 13 11 13 10 7 8 3 5 3 13 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -4 -5 -4 -4 0 1 5 3 -5 -2 -4 -2 -5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 117 124 111 91 95 114 126 167 152 65 65 15 19 247 251 230 225 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 152 150 150 148 147 145 142 140 145 145 144 146 147 147 147 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 74 75 77 72 67 60 50 47 50 50 55 55 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 15 15 18 20 21 20 20 20 21 24 26 27 30 30 850 MB ENV VOR 114 108 109 104 104 118 130 138 137 120 120 132 135 130 109 102 97 200 MB DIV 83 86 82 53 61 75 98 59 39 16 -34 -34 25 55 57 37 23 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 1 0 -1 -2 1 -1 -3 -2 -3 0 0 2 3 6 LAND (KM) 715 636 566 534 514 487 384 303 203 159 204 310 463 527 502 534 645 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 152.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 6 3 4 4 3 3 6 7 7 5 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 24 23 23 27 30 29 30 27 25 31 28 32 43 42 30 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 438 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 20. 22. 24. 26. 29. 30. 31. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 7. 11. 11. 10. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 17. 27. 35. 39. 37. 34. 32. 35. 38. 40. 39. 38. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 152.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/23/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.82 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.72 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -57.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.56 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.7% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0% 22.0% 26.7% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 35.0% 13.8% 9.6% 5.3% 11.1% 24.5% 6.3% Bayesian: 2.2% 17.9% 7.0% 2.3% 0.6% 2.7% 3.8% 1.6% Consensus: 3.7% 27.2% 13.4% 4.0% 2.0% 12.0% 18.3% 2.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 14.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 12.0% 81.0% SDCON: 2.3% 20.6% 9.2% 2.5% 1.5% 8.5% 15.1% 41.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/23/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##