* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/22/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 33 41 49 55 58 57 54 59 61 64 64 67 68 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 33 41 49 55 58 57 54 59 61 64 64 67 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 38 42 44 44 44 48 55 65 72 76 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 11 9 10 12 8 14 13 6 3 3 6 7 11 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 -4 -5 -1 0 7 4 6 -1 -3 -4 -4 -5 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 122 114 126 121 110 106 118 146 154 109 66 252 292 296 315 313 315 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 153 152 151 148 147 146 143 142 142 144 145 145 145 147 147 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -50.7 -50.6 -50.1 -50.5 -50.5 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 73 77 79 79 79 82 79 75 67 59 48 50 50 47 48 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 17 20 20 21 20 18 21 24 28 29 32 33 850 MB ENV VOR 116 113 107 102 100 103 119 131 124 139 122 131 137 139 116 104 85 200 MB DIV 67 80 78 88 78 132 109 122 58 51 0 -25 10 32 45 21 2 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 -4 -5 -7 -3 -1 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 859 785 711 649 592 535 467 404 337 267 219 218 293 372 478 533 563 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 150.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 6 3 3 4 3 3 3 5 5 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 19 18 25 25 25 29 32 27 28 27 30 29 28 33 44 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. 29. 31. 32. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 13. 12. 8. 12. 13. 17. 16. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 8. 16. 24. 30. 33. 32. 29. 34. 36. 39. 39. 42. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 150.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/22/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.84 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.66 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.55 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -11.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.2% 18.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 2.6% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 6.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 6.7% 7.0% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 5.0% SDCON: 0.0% 5.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 5.5% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/22/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##