* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/22/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 50 59 63 62 62 64 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 50 59 63 62 62 64 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 36 42 46 48 48 51 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 13 13 13 9 12 8 9 12 8 2 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 3 4 3 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 130 131 133 141 137 104 155 136 161 140 163 268 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 157 154 152 150 146 145 144 141 140 142 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -51.4 -51.0 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 77 81 83 84 83 81 77 68 58 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 14 17 20 20 20 20 21 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 120 107 99 94 89 87 100 114 121 127 135 118 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 55 56 70 83 100 121 115 77 41 12 -23 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 -7 -8 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 999 901 810 754 700 601 523 473 388 323 269 212 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 148.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 10 8 6 5 3 3 5 3 3 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 25 26 23 17 28 29 28 27 24 23 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 28. 29. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 12. 11. 13. 15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 25. 34. 38. 37. 37. 39. 41. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 148.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/22/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.86 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.61 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.48 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -45.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.40 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.5% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 20.5% 22.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 8.0% 2.1% 1.2% 0.9% 3.0% 9.0% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 11.2% Consensus: 0.2% 9.9% 6.2% 0.4% 0.3% 7.9% 10.9% 5.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 4.9% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 3.9% 5.4% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/22/26 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING