* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/22/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 45 52 54 55 54 55 59 63 65 68 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 45 52 54 46 51 52 56 59 62 65 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 35 37 33 37 39 44 50 56 63 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 19 13 13 11 3 11 18 14 11 4 4 3 1 8 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -6 -2 0 -6 -2 -5 0 -5 0 -2 1 2 0 3 6 SHEAR DIR 102 128 141 151 171 198 178 208 198 221 240 19 35 190 249 270 208 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.8 28.1 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 153 151 147 143 141 140 145 142 143 146 149 150 154 155 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -51.5 -51.2 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 72 74 72 75 77 75 71 65 59 51 46 44 46 48 51 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 13 14 16 17 18 18 18 20 22 24 26 28 850 MB ENV VOR 131 121 102 91 93 100 112 116 126 99 85 89 114 119 127 134 146 200 MB DIV 90 72 55 56 66 49 68 89 64 3 -27 -25 -8 6 29 28 43 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 -1 0 2 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1053 983 883 783 685 495 325 204 73 -7 105 238 360 618 883 1152 1354 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.9 17.1 17.9 18.8 19.6 20.0 19.7 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 147.4 148.1 149.0 149.8 150.6 152.0 153.0 153.8 154.6 155.9 157.6 159.7 162.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 9 9 6 6 6 8 9 11 13 13 13 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 24 28 25 26 24 21 14 4 18 17 29 31 31 39 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 26. 28. 30. 32. 35. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 12. 11. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 20. 27. 29. 30. 29. 30. 34. 38. 40. 43. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 147.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/22/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.84 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.54 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.50 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -26.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.14 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.6% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.6% 18.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 1.4% 12.3% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.1% 7.4% 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 7.0% 10.3% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% SDCON: 0.0% 5.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.6% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/22/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##