* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/22/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 35 42 47 50 52 50 49 49 50 50 51 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 35 42 47 50 52 44 47 48 48 48 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 38 34 37 37 40 42 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 16 14 13 6 7 12 16 12 5 5 5 7 10 15 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -5 -4 -2 -5 -4 -3 -4 1 2 1 -1 -1 -4 3 1 SHEAR DIR 96 115 130 142 156 164 145 172 193 193 185 188 163 237 271 224 225 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.6 28.0 28.1 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 154 151 147 143 140 141 138 143 145 143 146 147 148 147 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 71 72 70 73 75 72 70 64 56 50 48 45 49 47 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 11 12 12 13 15 14 13 12 13 12 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 130 127 115 97 91 96 107 116 119 129 106 94 92 101 97 100 96 200 MB DIV 78 100 61 48 50 76 69 70 76 82 38 -14 -28 -3 38 13 51 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1089 1017 913 813 706 529 386 295 195 97 -7 136 279 383 534 695 857 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.6 16.5 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.2 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 146.7 147.4 148.4 149.3 150.3 151.9 152.9 153.5 154.1 154.7 155.8 157.2 159.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 10 10 8 5 4 5 5 6 8 10 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 24 25 26 26 26 22 22 14 6 27 17 25 29 30 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 27. 29. 31. 33. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 7. 5. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 17. 22. 25. 27. 25. 24. 24. 25. 25. 26. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 146.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/22/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.84 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.49 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.49 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.26 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -40.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.33 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.6% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 18.5% 18.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 1.5% 3.4% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 0.1% 7.3% 5.0% 0.2% 0.1% 6.7% 7.3% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/22/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##