* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/21/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 42 48 50 49 48 46 46 46 48 49 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 42 48 50 49 48 46 45 46 47 48 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 33 36 39 40 39 38 40 42 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 20 19 16 11 7 10 12 15 8 3 2 5 6 9 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -6 -5 -1 -6 -2 -3 0 2 5 0 -3 -4 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 94 93 110 124 137 152 111 147 185 187 195 175 171 158 285 241 224 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.0 28.3 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 158 158 156 152 147 143 142 141 140 141 145 145 148 147 148 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.4 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 7 6 700-500 MB RH 67 67 71 74 73 77 77 75 71 65 57 52 48 48 50 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 12 12 13 14 15 13 12 12 13 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 141 134 133 121 105 94 96 109 111 131 121 109 90 98 102 111 100 200 MB DIV 71 80 90 69 60 70 74 81 72 98 64 5 -35 -34 1 26 32 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -2 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1141 1076 1006 915 834 666 527 413 331 234 131 27 100 327 453 557 698 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.5 15.3 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.5 19.0 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 146.5 147.3 148.1 149.0 149.8 151.3 152.4 152.9 153.2 153.6 154.1 155.2 156.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 8 9 9 9 7 6 4 4 4 5 6 9 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 19 18 22 27 26 28 27 24 22 16 18 25 21 34 30 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 452 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. 30. 31. 33. 35. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 17. 23. 25. 24. 23. 21. 21. 21. 23. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 146.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/21/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.53 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -19.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.06 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.7% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 19.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 6.0% 4.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% Consensus: 0.1% 7.6% 5.4% 0.1% 0.1% 6.7% 8.6% 2.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/21/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##