* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/20/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 22 25 28 30 29 29 29 32 34 37 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 22 25 28 30 29 29 29 32 34 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 21 20 19 19 20 22 23 25 26 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 28 33 30 31 39 27 18 16 7 2 6 6 9 8 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 4 4 -3 -3 0 -2 -1 -2 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 98 110 117 114 100 100 94 76 65 81 152 239 255 246 252 233 256 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 161 160 159 154 159 160 159 153 149 148 146 146 148 146 148 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 54 58 64 70 73 79 80 84 86 84 78 73 67 63 60 61 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 109 109 125 131 128 115 111 90 90 94 121 119 122 143 131 139 115 200 MB DIV -10 -5 25 65 85 84 69 90 75 117 110 117 71 59 35 46 61 700-850 TADV 3 0 -2 -1 1 1 -1 0 1 1 1 1 0 -4 -4 -5 0 LAND (KM) 1141 1085 1096 1128 1161 1190 1150 1067 985 933 894 836 739 640 520 457 404 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 12.4 11.7 11.0 10.4 9.9 10.4 11.6 13.0 14.3 15.3 16.0 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 146.5 147.8 148.5 149.0 149.4 149.7 149.6 149.1 148.5 147.9 147.6 147.8 148.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 12 9 8 6 0 5 8 8 6 5 4 5 6 8 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 16 13 15 17 17 18 16 19 25 23 21 12 15 27 29 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 357 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 24. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. 42. 43. 45. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -9. -18. -25. -29. -29. -28. -25. -23. -19. -16. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 3. 5. 4. 4. 4. 7. 9. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 146.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/20/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.89 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.18 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 19.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/20/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##