* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/20/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 29 32 37 40 43 43 42 40 37 36 37 39 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 29 32 37 40 43 43 42 40 37 36 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 29 31 31 29 27 24 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 23 27 29 25 29 23 14 11 9 12 16 20 24 30 26 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 2 4 -1 -6 0 0 0 3 2 4 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 84 81 92 101 92 79 91 105 122 162 205 211 213 216 229 217 228 SST (C) 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.3 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.3 27.2 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 161 163 161 158 162 161 157 151 147 147 143 135 134 143 143 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 8 8 6 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 54 57 61 68 75 78 84 84 86 83 80 75 70 64 58 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 9 11 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 13 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 108 110 120 131 133 121 113 98 82 103 130 129 125 112 104 100 115 200 MB DIV -2 -14 8 51 87 81 83 75 54 89 118 115 91 34 28 25 21 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -9 -11 -17 -13 -9 LAND (KM) 1270 1240 1241 1278 1310 1318 1277 1171 1063 978 908 813 703 602 474 330 209 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 12.1 11.4 10.7 10.1 9.8 10.4 11.8 13.4 14.8 15.9 16.9 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 145.0 146.1 146.8 147.1 147.4 147.7 147.5 147.3 147.1 147.0 147.1 147.6 148.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 9 7 5 1 6 8 8 6 5 6 6 5 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 18 11 11 13 16 12 12 24 22 23 17 16 10 9 18 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 385 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 24. 31. 34. 37. 39. 41. 41. 41. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. -0. -1. -6. -13. -18. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -17. -17. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -13. -14. -13. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 18. 17. 15. 12. 11. 12. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 145.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/20/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.89 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.16 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 19.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/20/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##