* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/20/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 38 42 43 44 43 44 44 46 50 54 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 38 42 43 44 43 44 44 46 50 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 31 33 35 37 38 39 41 45 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 18 23 25 21 19 24 14 11 9 13 15 12 9 11 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 2 3 -1 -4 -2 0 -6 0 -5 -2 -4 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 108 100 105 117 127 96 97 116 142 151 162 185 194 197 188 171 160 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 157 157 158 160 157 153 149 146 143 143 144 147 146 148 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 58 63 65 71 75 77 81 81 82 80 79 77 73 65 61 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 13 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 109 119 129 144 153 133 129 118 98 106 122 116 115 113 126 121 149 200 MB DIV 16 20 26 47 73 63 83 75 87 60 77 52 54 48 68 24 7 700-850 TADV -5 0 2 1 -1 -3 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 -5 -5 -7 LAND (KM) 1449 1417 1396 1373 1346 1263 1119 951 779 640 507 421 334 246 214 348 542 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 13.6 13.0 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.9 12.9 14.1 15.0 16.0 16.6 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 142.3 143.0 143.6 144.2 144.9 146.4 147.9 149.1 150.1 151.0 151.7 152.2 153.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 5 7 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 33 23 15 12 13 12 14 18 28 28 26 28 25 26 32 23 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 38. 39. 41. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -7. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 18. 19. 18. 19. 19. 21. 25. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.3 142.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/20/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.15 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 15.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/20/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##