* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/20/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 43 46 48 50 52 54 53 55 59 62 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 43 46 48 50 52 54 53 55 59 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 37 41 45 50 54 57 63 73 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 17 20 22 16 18 20 15 12 14 13 6 9 7 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 1 2 2 -2 -4 -1 -3 -2 -4 -4 -3 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 148 108 103 110 124 122 102 111 121 141 133 157 161 159 90 98 17 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 157 157 157 157 160 158 154 150 149 148 147 147 149 149 147 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 57 59 63 66 69 77 77 80 81 80 82 83 82 80 77 73 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 12 12 12 12 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 97 103 116 129 142 147 138 133 113 105 102 106 99 117 126 148 161 200 MB DIV 0 12 17 20 46 66 67 85 86 91 106 96 102 110 104 118 137 700-850 TADV -6 -4 0 2 1 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 0 0 5 LAND (KM) 1485 1436 1391 1359 1320 1217 1083 947 831 731 651 591 543 508 509 580 642 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 14.8 14.3 13.8 13.2 12.3 12.0 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 141.5 142.2 142.9 143.5 144.3 146.2 148.3 150.0 151.2 152.1 152.7 153.1 153.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 9 10 11 9 7 6 5 3 2 3 3 4 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 30 18 19 19 13 22 20 20 26 27 27 27 26 22 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 40. 41. 42. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. 29. 28. 30. 34. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 141.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/20/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.85 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.36 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.26 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -1.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/20/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##