* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/19/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 27 28 32 36 41 45 49 51 54 57 58 59 63 65 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 27 28 32 36 41 45 49 51 54 57 58 59 63 65 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 33 37 41 46 51 59 66 73 81 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 6 10 14 17 16 21 19 13 9 14 12 13 10 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 0 1 0 -2 -6 -1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 189 162 134 120 119 138 123 115 121 137 121 133 135 133 126 141 142 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 153 157 156 159 158 157 153 150 148 148 147 146 147 149 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.0 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 58 58 62 64 66 72 74 78 78 81 81 84 84 83 75 70 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 10 12 12 14 16 17 19 22 25 850 MB ENV VOR 96 94 101 113 126 155 146 133 132 118 121 116 118 132 139 165 169 200 MB DIV -36 -12 8 24 20 53 56 63 83 96 82 121 111 116 95 122 89 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -5 0 1 -3 -5 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 -6 -8 LAND (KM) 1559 1484 1430 1365 1299 1169 1023 905 814 752 711 659 633 597 567 528 472 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 15.9 15.7 15.3 14.8 13.6 12.8 12.5 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.4 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.5 141.3 141.9 142.7 143.6 145.7 148.2 150.4 152.0 152.9 153.4 153.4 153.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 9 11 12 12 9 6 3 2 1 2 1 2 3 6 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 26 27 24 25 17 23 24 20 19 21 23 26 27 27 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 37. 39. 40. 41. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. -0. -0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 12. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 29. 32. 33. 34. 38. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.1 140.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/19/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.82 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.65 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.27 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -0.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% SDCON: 0.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/19/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##