* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/19/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 25 26 31 36 40 43 46 50 54 59 58 62 64 64 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 25 26 31 36 40 43 46 50 54 59 58 62 64 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 28 31 34 37 41 47 53 63 73 82 87 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 4 4 7 13 12 14 15 12 8 6 10 15 12 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 -2 -3 -5 -6 -4 -3 -2 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 220 217 209 149 134 135 152 146 153 146 144 105 113 128 133 138 158 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 29.1 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 149 149 157 156 157 153 150 147 145 145 146 147 148 149 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 61 64 67 71 73 76 75 77 77 81 80 81 80 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 12 15 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 91 85 81 87 98 120 135 130 120 119 118 109 110 109 128 137 154 200 MB DIV -30 -32 -24 4 19 9 41 37 59 49 51 61 80 113 128 123 137 700-850 TADV 2 -2 -5 -4 0 1 -5 -2 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -4 -4 -11 LAND (KM) 1627 1531 1469 1403 1324 1149 945 752 631 589 614 632 645 628 602 586 601 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.5 16.1 15.3 14.5 14.1 13.9 13.7 13.4 13.3 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 139.7 140.6 141.2 141.9 142.8 144.9 147.6 150.5 152.9 154.7 155.9 156.6 156.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 8 10 13 14 13 11 7 5 2 1 3 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 24 26 26 23 23 26 25 26 27 18 20 21 21 20 18 17 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. 38. 40. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -0. 1. 6. 11. 15. 18. 21. 25. 29. 34. 33. 37. 39. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.6 139.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/19/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.79 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.80 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.10 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.26 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 5.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/19/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##