* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/19/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 24 25 29 31 34 32 35 38 45 49 51 58 59 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 24 25 29 31 34 32 35 38 45 49 51 58 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 23 24 26 28 30 31 34 38 46 55 66 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 11 10 7 1 12 10 17 17 9 5 7 9 10 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 -6 -5 -8 -2 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 231 242 232 235 234 199 169 177 172 182 189 165 136 110 103 85 87 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.3 28.1 28.2 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 143 146 149 145 154 153 150 151 150 151 145 141 143 153 155 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 58 61 58 58 59 61 64 65 69 68 70 67 70 75 75 76 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 9 10 12 11 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 94 81 69 65 69 84 97 103 98 93 98 94 96 100 100 101 120 200 MB DIV -39 -45 -42 -34 -29 -14 -5 6 17 16 7 18 36 73 107 68 132 700-850 TADV 3 1 -2 -6 -5 2 -4 -4 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1698 1585 1497 1426 1335 1145 907 659 468 414 492 636 760 836 853 828 823 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.5 17.7 17.6 17.5 16.9 16.1 15.6 15.5 15.2 14.9 14.4 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 138.9 139.9 140.7 141.4 142.3 144.3 147.0 150.1 153.1 155.6 157.6 159.4 160.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 8 9 12 14 15 13 11 9 8 5 2 3 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 13 16 16 19 26 26 30 30 28 32 21 15 16 36 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 27. 30. 33. 35. 37. 38. 40. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 4. 6. 9. 7. 10. 13. 20. 24. 26. 33. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.1 138.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/19/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.77 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.66 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -37.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.15 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 12.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/19/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##