* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/18/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 26 31 36 38 41 42 46 53 58 62 67 70 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 26 31 36 38 41 42 46 53 58 62 67 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 29 32 35 38 41 45 53 63 77 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 12 9 7 6 5 12 13 18 15 6 1 5 4 8 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -4 -3 -5 -3 -2 -1 -2 -5 -5 -5 -6 -9 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 206 198 211 230 224 208 150 158 156 166 186 182 53 63 75 81 70 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.1 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 147 146 151 153 155 154 152 152 150 151 149 143 143 143 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 63 65 66 65 65 67 69 67 71 72 73 72 74 73 72 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 9 10 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 89 94 93 83 77 80 97 114 107 108 103 99 91 85 79 76 81 200 MB DIV 7 -19 -29 -21 -5 -2 5 5 11 16 14 19 35 49 50 66 73 700-850 TADV -3 0 1 0 -2 -4 0 -1 -5 0 2 0 -2 -3 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1954 1860 1780 1705 1630 1477 1280 1042 775 580 489 530 643 774 874 944 988 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 16.8 16.9 16.8 16.2 15.5 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.3 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.7 137.5 138.2 138.9 139.6 141.1 143.2 145.9 149.2 152.3 154.8 156.9 158.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 8 12 15 16 14 11 9 9 7 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 22 21 18 27 23 26 24 28 27 28 30 28 14 15 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 34. 37. 40. 41. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 11. 13. 16. 17. 21. 28. 33. 37. 42. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 136.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/18/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.77 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.67 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.10 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.21 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.96 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -5.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 5.6% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 2.8% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/18/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##