* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/18/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 25 27 31 36 40 42 44 47 53 54 59 63 64 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 25 27 31 36 40 42 44 47 53 54 59 63 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 29 34 40 46 52 58 64 71 79 88 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 12 11 8 5 6 12 11 17 15 9 10 7 5 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -3 -4 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -6 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 233 200 186 190 202 171 162 131 140 129 163 164 174 157 143 119 77 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.2 29.5 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 150 150 151 154 159 158 161 155 154 150 148 149 149 148 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 64 63 64 66 67 65 67 67 73 72 77 78 83 82 82 77 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 10 10 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 90 92 98 98 93 94 108 136 134 127 131 123 118 107 105 99 94 200 MB DIV 50 25 -11 -27 -34 -6 27 27 33 36 44 49 68 77 79 116 102 700-850 TADV -1 -3 0 1 0 -3 -4 1 -4 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 2041 1942 1866 1799 1737 1627 1495 1318 1110 917 776 676 651 672 715 726 717 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.3 14.4 13.7 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.0 136.9 137.6 138.2 138.8 139.9 141.4 143.6 146.3 149.1 151.5 153.5 155.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 6 6 5 10 13 14 13 11 8 7 5 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 24 22 22 29 29 22 26 23 18 23 16 20 23 24 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 801 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 37. 40. 42. 44. 45. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 15. 17. 19. 22. 28. 29. 34. 38. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 136.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/18/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.67 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.83 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 11.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/18/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##