* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142026 09/14/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 35 33 32 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 35 33 32 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 34 32 28 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 17 17 28 33 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 3 5 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 270 256 252 256 256 266 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.8 27.4 26.4 25.8 26.2 26.7 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 139 129 123 126 132 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.5 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 62 65 62 61 60 57 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 48 43 29 26 22 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -14 -8 18 14 39 21 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 6 4 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2119 1986 1853 1705 1558 1277 1010 691 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.5 20.8 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.6 135.9 137.1 138.5 139.9 142.6 145.2 148.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 12 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 11 2 0 1 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -12. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.9 134.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142026 NORBERT 09/14/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.52 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.30 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.05 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -15.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142026 NORBERT 09/14/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##