* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142026 09/13/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 44 41 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 44 41 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 42 41 37 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 9 13 15 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 4 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 299 280 248 256 268 256 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.9 27.6 26.2 27.0 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 132 134 141 126 135 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -50.4 -50.5 -50.7 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 62 64 65 63 63 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 14 13 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 52 49 51 46 37 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 12 19 12 1 9 31 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 3 0 -1 2 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2055 2132 2165 2026 1888 1602 1328 1004 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.1 133.2 134.2 135.5 136.8 139.5 142.1 145.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 12 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 7 5 5 12 0 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.1 132.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142026 NORBERT 09/13/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.51 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.48 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -49.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.46 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 19.2% 14.9% 12.2% 9.2% 16.9% 0.0% 9.9% Logistic: 1.1% 3.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 7.4% 5.3% 4.3% 3.1% 5.8% 0.0% 3.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 4.2% 3.1% 2.1% 1.5% 2.9% 0.0% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142026 NORBERT 09/13/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##