* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142026 09/13/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 44 42 41 39 37 35 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 44 42 41 39 37 35 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 40 39 36 34 31 29 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 9 8 8 11 19 22 26 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 0 2 3 4 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 263 281 272 270 251 252 248 272 283 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.8 27.4 26.0 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 135 133 131 132 139 125 136 138 138 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 59 60 63 62 63 57 60 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 16 15 14 12 11 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 60 50 43 39 40 30 30 15 17 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -4 4 8 29 5 4 26 15 -1 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 4 3 3 0 3 1 0 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1897 1965 2036 2117 2162 1909 1623 1340 1047 757 491 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.4 19.3 18.9 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.0 131.0 132.1 133.2 134.2 136.6 139.3 142.0 144.8 147.6 150.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 10 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 4 4 3 6 11 0 6 10 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.8 130.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142026 NORBERT 09/13/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.50 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 -3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -46.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.41 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 18.5% 14.4% 11.8% 9.0% 17.1% 0.0% 10.2% Logistic: 0.7% 2.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.9% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 5.8% 0.0% 3.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 3.9% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 3.4% 0.0% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142026 NORBERT 09/13/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##