* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142026 09/12/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 41 40 40 38 37 35 34 33 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 41 40 40 38 37 35 34 33 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 40 39 37 35 33 31 28 26 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 8 7 7 5 11 14 20 20 20 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 1 0 6 4 6 0 -1 -1 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 228 252 269 277 214 244 242 269 294 299 300 302 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.1 27.9 26.5 27.6 27.5 28.2 28.1 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 138 136 134 135 144 130 141 140 147 147 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.4 -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 64 62 62 60 64 63 65 62 63 63 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 16 15 15 13 12 10 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 65 61 54 46 50 36 43 34 41 34 40 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 1 10 5 6 32 19 25 27 16 3 -30 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 4 4 4 0 5 -1 0 -3 -4 -6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1845 1908 1974 2047 2122 2061 1807 1545 1275 1013 753 554 459 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.7 18.5 18.0 17.4 16.5 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.1 130.1 131.0 132.0 133.0 135.2 137.6 140.1 142.7 145.3 148.0 150.6 153.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 10 6 5 6 8 13 2 11 13 16 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.5 129.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142026 NORBERT 09/12/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.53 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 -3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -52.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.49 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 16.5% 13.4% 11.6% 8.8% 16.6% 15.5% 11.2% Logistic: 0.6% 2.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.3% 4.7% 4.0% 2.9% 5.6% 5.2% 3.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 3.6% 2.3% 2.0% 1.4% 2.8% 2.6% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142026 NORBERT 09/12/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##