* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142026 09/12/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 46 45 44 43 41 39 38 36 36 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 48 46 45 44 43 41 39 38 36 36 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 48 46 45 43 40 38 35 33 31 29 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 8 7 5 6 7 14 14 14 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 1 0 0 2 1 3 2 0 -4 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 220 237 237 244 280 271 217 244 253 291 300 308 302 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.0 27.2 28.0 26.9 27.7 27.5 28.2 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 142 139 136 134 136 145 133 142 139 147 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.6 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 63 62 62 61 63 62 63 64 67 62 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 17 17 16 15 13 11 10 8 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 58 55 53 47 38 44 42 34 33 45 32 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 -12 -1 7 3 13 17 22 23 11 12 0 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 3 2 2 0 0 1 -2 -2 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1766 1813 1863 1935 2010 2166 2008 1758 1518 1287 1070 907 786 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.4 18.3 17.8 17.0 16.1 15.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.8 128.7 129.5 130.5 131.5 133.5 135.7 138.1 140.4 142.7 145.0 147.0 148.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 7 10 6 4 5 8 13 4 11 16 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -14. -14. -16. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.2 127.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142026 NORBERT 09/12/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.50 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -45.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.40 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 16.8% 14.0% 12.2% 9.4% 17.4% 14.7% 10.9% Logistic: 0.5% 2.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.4% 4.9% 4.2% 3.2% 5.9% 4.9% 3.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 3.7% 2.4% 2.1% 1.6% 3.4% 2.4% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142026 NORBERT 09/12/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##