* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142026 09/12/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 47 47 47 45 44 42 41 41 42 43 45 46 47 47 V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 47 47 47 45 44 42 41 41 42 43 45 46 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 46 45 43 41 39 37 35 33 32 31 31 31 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 9 10 5 6 9 8 11 12 11 8 8 16 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 1 0 0 5 1 6 4 2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 197 216 229 217 246 289 210 240 244 262 299 311 306 271 240 229 231 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 28.0 28.2 27.7 27.1 26.9 27.4 28.0 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 144 146 140 135 133 137 144 138 141 143 150 149 150 148 147 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -50.7 -50.4 -50.6 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 65 65 62 63 62 62 63 60 61 61 61 60 58 58 60 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 18 17 17 15 14 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 71 66 63 64 62 49 51 42 42 28 32 30 32 35 34 34 27 200 MB DIV 21 5 -11 -1 2 13 30 20 10 -8 -5 -3 -16 -16 -12 21 78 700-850 TADV 6 4 1 0 3 2 2 1 0 -2 -3 -4 -7 0 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1719 1777 1836 1894 1955 2073 2146 1926 1761 1514 1231 1040 972 897 805 755 750 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.4 18.2 17.9 17.5 16.7 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.0 127.9 128.8 129.8 130.7 132.3 134.4 136.5 138.1 140.5 143.3 145.4 146.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 9 10 13 12 9 8 7 5 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 10 11 9 5 6 8 13 7 11 21 22 21 24 23 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.0 127.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142026 NORBERT 09/12/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.52 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.08 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -37.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.29 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 19.0% 15.7% 13.2% 10.4% 18.9% 15.7% 11.4% Logistic: 0.5% 2.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 7.1% 5.4% 4.5% 3.5% 6.4% 5.3% 3.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 4.5% 3.2% 2.7% 2.2% 3.7% 2.6% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142026 NORBERT 09/12/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##