* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142026 09/12/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 57 56 56 52 51 48 47 45 44 44 45 46 47 48 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 57 56 56 52 51 48 47 45 44 44 45 46 47 48 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 55 55 53 49 46 42 38 35 32 30 29 28 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 12 13 12 9 5 8 10 11 12 13 12 11 9 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -2 1 1 5 7 5 11 6 2 2 1 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 219 194 202 210 216 265 257 218 249 250 274 289 299 294 258 223 220 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.9 27.8 26.9 26.5 27.0 27.7 26.3 27.4 27.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 139 143 142 133 128 134 141 127 139 137 148 147 148 150 146 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.5 -50.6 -50.7 -50.3 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 61 59 60 58 60 59 62 60 61 57 58 62 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 21 20 20 18 17 15 14 12 11 9 9 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 70 76 71 69 63 67 48 46 32 34 29 42 30 41 39 31 29 200 MB DIV 41 27 11 3 0 7 17 17 10 9 -1 9 -11 -13 -11 13 58 700-850 TADV 6 6 4 2 4 3 2 2 1 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 1642 1704 1766 1822 1882 2025 2166 2006 1795 1566 1320 1115 958 867 824 736 596 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.3 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.7 18.3 17.6 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.1 127.1 128.1 129.0 129.9 131.9 133.7 135.7 137.7 139.9 142.3 144.4 146.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 9 7 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 5 9 7 3 1 6 13 1 9 10 24 20 21 24 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -8. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.1 126.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142026 NORBERT 09/12/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.46 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 284.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 -3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -52.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.50 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 22.3% 18.3% 15.2% 11.9% 19.4% 0.0% 10.0% Logistic: 1.9% 4.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 8.9% 6.5% 5.3% 4.0% 6.6% 0.0% 3.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.1% 5.9% 4.2% 3.1% 2.5% 3.8% 0.5% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142026 NORBERT 09/12/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##