* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142026 09/11/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 58 59 57 55 53 51 49 48 49 50 51 53 55 57 V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 58 59 57 55 53 51 49 48 49 50 51 53 55 57 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 58 57 56 54 51 48 45 42 41 42 43 45 46 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 11 10 11 8 6 5 8 9 7 6 9 3 6 9 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 -3 4 3 7 3 0 -1 -1 -5 -5 -6 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 268 223 220 235 258 264 281 257 267 291 311 292 315 289 230 212 216 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.7 27.8 28.3 27.4 27.1 27.1 27.8 26.8 27.5 27.5 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 141 142 147 138 135 135 142 132 139 139 146 149 150 151 148 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.5 -50.6 -50.8 -50.9 -50.4 -50.9 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.6 -51.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 67 66 64 65 61 62 60 63 62 67 70 71 68 66 66 68 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 19 19 18 17 16 14 13 11 9 8 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 65 68 74 70 64 67 53 49 40 39 37 52 45 31 28 20 15 200 MB DIV 29 40 26 7 -6 2 4 23 10 27 18 17 0 -7 -7 11 15 700-850 TADV 2 6 5 2 2 3 4 1 5 2 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1608 1673 1742 1812 1884 1999 2155 2052 1829 1600 1375 1172 1008 906 883 788 602 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.5 18.1 17.4 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.2 126.3 127.3 128.4 129.4 131.3 133.3 135.3 137.4 139.6 141.8 143.9 145.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 7 7 12 7 6 7 13 5 9 11 25 23 21 20 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.7 125.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142026 NORBERT 09/11/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.48 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.58 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 261.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 -4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.07 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -66.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.69 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 24.7% 19.8% 16.5% 12.8% 21.0% 16.4% 11.5% Logistic: 5.4% 11.4% 3.8% 3.0% 0.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 12.3% 7.9% 6.5% 4.6% 7.5% 5.6% 3.9% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.8% 8.1% 5.4% 4.7% 3.3% 4.2% 2.8% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142026 NORBERT 09/11/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##