* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142026 09/11/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 62 64 64 61 59 55 51 48 47 46 48 48 51 53 54 V (KT) LAND 55 60 62 64 64 61 59 55 51 48 47 46 48 48 51 53 54 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 63 65 65 64 62 57 52 49 46 45 46 47 48 50 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 11 11 9 8 8 10 8 10 9 8 6 5 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 1 -1 1 3 2 2 0 -1 -3 -6 -7 -5 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 291 243 226 221 235 257 274 262 253 269 255 267 284 286 245 222 215 SST (C) 28.2 27.4 27.4 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.0 26.9 27.3 27.5 26.8 27.7 27.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 139 138 141 143 143 134 133 137 139 132 141 139 149 150 150 149 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.8 -50.5 -50.6 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 67 64 65 64 62 63 62 65 63 64 60 63 58 63 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 19 18 17 17 15 13 11 10 8 8 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 59 61 69 77 73 58 57 41 44 31 32 39 41 27 39 34 32 200 MB DIV 18 31 41 18 4 -2 17 8 17 24 13 12 11 -18 -21 -3 44 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 1 -2 -3 -1 -4 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 1541 1604 1673 1750 1827 1937 2067 2147 1944 1724 1508 1297 1108 966 883 797 675 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.3 18.6 18.6 18.3 17.8 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.1 125.3 126.4 127.5 128.5 130.4 132.3 134.4 136.3 138.4 140.5 142.6 144.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 2 5 7 8 10 4 5 8 9 3 11 16 24 21 24 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -1. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -13. -14. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 9. 9. 6. 4. -0. -4. -7. -8. -9. -7. -7. -4. -2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.6 124.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142026 NORBERT 09/11/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.48 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 6.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -76.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.82 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 40.1% 27.0% 21.7% 14.1% 25.1% 17.8% 12.0% Logistic: 18.2% 23.4% 10.5% 8.8% 2.3% 3.5% 1.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 2.2% 3.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.9% 22.4% 12.6% 10.2% 5.6% 9.6% 6.4% 4.2% DTOPS: 5.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 8.4% 15.2% 9.3% 7.1% 4.8% 5.8% 3.7% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142026 NORBERT 09/11/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##