* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142026 09/11/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 56 58 60 58 57 54 51 48 48 46 48 49 51 53 54 V (KT) LAND 50 54 56 58 60 58 57 54 51 48 48 46 48 49 51 53 54 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 58 58 58 56 54 52 49 46 45 45 46 46 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 7 8 10 9 8 8 6 5 5 8 8 7 8 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 1 0 -4 1 0 2 0 1 0 -2 -6 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 294 282 257 231 239 264 249 269 249 273 249 254 240 262 246 235 212 SST (C) 27.8 28.3 27.7 27.4 27.8 28.1 27.3 26.7 27.1 27.6 27.4 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.7 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 148 142 138 142 145 137 131 135 140 138 139 144 147 151 150 149 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 65 67 64 65 63 66 65 66 63 65 63 61 63 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 18 19 17 16 14 13 10 9 6 6 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 58 58 62 69 78 61 57 42 40 25 33 27 45 35 29 37 34 200 MB DIV 26 36 28 30 18 16 0 4 20 15 16 22 31 19 15 -9 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 3 2 3 3 2 1 3 -1 -4 -1 -1 -4 0 1 LAND (KM) 1429 1526 1610 1677 1750 1875 1981 2110 2096 1885 1674 1450 1242 1060 925 856 828 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.2 17.8 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.0 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.7 123.9 125.1 126.2 127.3 129.2 131.0 132.8 134.9 136.9 138.9 141.1 143.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 10 10 9 10 11 11 10 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 4 13 5 4 8 11 7 5 7 10 9 9 14 22 24 22 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 10. 8. 7. 4. 1. -2. -2. -4. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.6 122.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142026 NORBERT 09/11/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.53 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.54 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -74.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.78 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 29.9% 20.0% 16.5% 12.5% 24.7% 19.0% 13.5% Logistic: 15.9% 31.3% 13.2% 11.2% 2.7% 6.2% 2.2% 0.8% Bayesian: 1.5% 6.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.0% 22.4% 11.3% 9.4% 5.2% 10.3% 7.1% 4.8% DTOPS: 4.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 7.0% 14.7% 8.1% 6.2% 4.1% 6.1% 4.0% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142026 NORBERT 09/11/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##