* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142026 09/10/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 46 47 48 51 52 54 53 50 52 52 53 56 58 61 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 46 47 48 51 52 54 53 50 52 52 53 56 58 61 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 46 46 47 48 48 46 44 42 42 41 41 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 10 8 7 8 4 3 3 5 7 5 6 8 7 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 1 1 0 -3 5 1 1 -1 2 1 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 284 287 275 274 254 228 251 235 219 192 236 215 207 217 223 216 212 SST (C) 28.9 28.5 27.8 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.6 26.8 26.5 27.0 27.8 27.3 27.6 28.1 27.9 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 150 143 147 145 142 142 140 131 128 133 142 136 140 145 144 150 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -51.3 -50.9 -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 66 65 65 63 63 63 66 66 67 66 65 63 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 17 18 17 18 17 16 15 12 11 9 9 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 36 48 60 63 67 78 65 64 46 43 31 35 21 32 38 35 34 200 MB DIV 4 15 23 30 42 3 -13 -9 12 14 0 3 8 -15 -3 -11 -7 700-850 TADV 5 0 0 -2 3 0 1 3 3 3 1 -2 -2 -3 -4 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 1229 1317 1413 1509 1597 1734 1843 1954 2067 2196 2020 1843 1644 1475 1316 1128 903 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.4 18.4 18.3 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.9 121.2 122.5 123.7 124.8 127.0 128.8 130.6 132.3 133.9 135.6 137.3 139.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 10 3 13 8 7 8 10 2 2 7 12 8 11 17 18 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 15. 15. 16. 17. 18. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 2. 1. -0. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 11. 12. 14. 13. 10. 12. 12. 13. 16. 18. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.5 119.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142026 NORBERT 09/10/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.66 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.10 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -66.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.67 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 21.1% 16.9% 14.3% 10.7% 20.0% 18.6% 15.8% Logistic: 2.2% 12.3% 3.7% 2.5% 1.1% 2.6% 2.3% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 11.4% 6.9% 5.6% 3.9% 7.6% 7.0% 5.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.0% 8.7% 4.9% 3.3% 2.4% 4.8% 4.0% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142026 NORBERT 09/10/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##