* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142026 09/10/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 45 48 52 54 54 55 54 56 56 58 60 61 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 43 45 48 52 54 54 55 54 56 56 58 60 61 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 41 43 44 45 47 47 46 44 43 42 41 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 10 9 10 5 4 1 3 4 4 4 2 1 7 12 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 2 -2 5 5 5 3 4 7 3 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 287 290 296 295 290 267 277 116 239 248 273 276 259 210 215 216 224 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.8 28.2 27.3 27.5 28.0 27.0 26.5 26.7 27.4 27.6 27.1 27.3 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 149 143 147 137 139 143 133 128 130 138 139 133 135 144 140 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -50.6 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 -50.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 67 65 64 65 64 63 62 68 67 69 67 64 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 18 18 19 19 19 18 17 16 13 12 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 27 37 51 62 61 73 72 62 42 28 31 23 28 18 20 10 19 200 MB DIV 11 12 30 32 24 3 -30 1 10 0 -26 1 25 24 -3 -9 -21 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 0 0 5 1 3 1 4 0 0 0 -3 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1145 1224 1313 1405 1503 1651 1789 1902 1961 2080 2123 1923 1727 1593 1525 1374 1151 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.8 17.1 17.5 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.6 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.6 120.0 121.3 122.5 123.7 125.9 128.0 129.8 131.0 132.6 134.6 136.5 138.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 11 11 9 8 7 9 9 9 7 5 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 8 3 12 3 6 10 3 1 5 8 10 6 7 12 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. 20. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 17. 19. 19. 20. 19. 21. 21. 23. 25. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.5 118.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142026 NORBERT 09/10/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.71 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.58 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -63.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.64 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 19.2% 15.3% 13.2% 9.7% 18.5% 17.1% 15.5% Logistic: 1.7% 10.3% 3.0% 1.9% 1.0% 2.4% 1.6% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 9.9% 6.1% 5.0% 3.6% 7.0% 6.3% 5.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.2% 8.4% 4.5% 3.0% 2.3% 4.5% 4.1% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142026 NORBERT 09/10/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##