* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142026 09/10/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 43 46 51 58 59 61 62 60 62 64 68 71 72 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 43 46 51 58 59 61 62 60 62 64 68 71 72 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 42 43 45 48 50 52 52 50 48 48 49 51 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 12 11 8 6 3 2 2 3 2 2 1 2 2 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 4 6 5 3 4 1 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 263 288 290 302 298 296 291 342 172 185 260 261 360 81 172 239 241 SST (C) 29.4 29.0 28.9 28.3 27.4 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.2 27.2 28.1 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 155 149 139 143 142 142 142 140 136 135 144 142 146 146 143 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 68 67 67 66 65 64 62 62 61 64 66 68 68 67 63 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 16 17 17 18 19 18 17 16 13 12 10 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 24 27 40 52 61 65 72 67 60 41 36 32 32 22 20 19 17 200 MB DIV 17 20 20 35 23 17 -17 -35 -27 -9 -4 -9 1 24 -9 -44 -28 700-850 TADV -1 2 2 0 -2 2 0 2 5 5 1 2 0 -4 -3 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1050 1141 1216 1306 1405 1590 1765 1883 1965 2088 2162 1974 1832 1668 1487 1340 1223 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.5 16.6 17.1 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.0 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.3 118.5 119.7 121.1 122.4 124.7 127.2 129.2 130.4 132.1 134.3 136.1 137.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 12 11 11 8 7 9 10 8 7 8 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 29 19 14 9 3 8 9 11 14 16 7 6 15 12 16 18 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 8. 7. 6. 4. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 16. 23. 24. 26. 27. 25. 27. 29. 33. 36. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.4 117.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142026 NORBERT 09/10/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.73 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.63 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.28 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.16 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -39.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.31 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 17.7% 15.1% 13.1% 10.0% 19.1% 17.4% 15.6% Logistic: 1.0% 5.0% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 1.0% 1.5% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 7.7% 5.5% 4.7% 3.4% 6.7% 6.3% 5.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% SDCON: 2.1% 6.8% 4.2% 2.8% 2.2% 4.3% 4.1% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142026 NORBERT 09/10/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##