* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142026 09/10/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 42 48 55 63 69 73 74 75 75 76 79 83 84 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 42 48 55 63 69 73 74 75 75 76 79 83 84 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 37 39 42 46 51 58 64 66 64 62 60 60 60 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 8 8 3 2 2 1 3 2 1 2 5 2 1 1 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 4 6 9 7 6 10 6 7 6 SHEAR DIR 251 269 284 295 297 314 49 357 84 82 74 331 43 72 12 200 197 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.1 29.1 28.4 28.5 27.8 27.9 28.2 27.9 26.5 26.3 27.3 27.3 28.1 27.9 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 156 157 149 150 142 142 146 142 128 125 136 136 144 143 149 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -51.2 -50.7 -51.0 -50.6 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 70 69 70 69 69 69 67 68 64 62 61 64 64 66 65 66 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 17 18 19 19 20 21 21 21 20 19 18 16 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 19 28 32 41 55 66 72 73 69 55 37 28 22 30 29 44 38 200 MB DIV 16 18 29 24 30 19 6 -23 -22 3 -8 -10 3 0 -1 -9 -11 700-850 TADV 0 -2 1 1 -2 0 1 2 4 2 4 0 1 -1 -3 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 972 1066 1167 1252 1339 1529 1680 1773 1889 1958 2032 2136 2110 1956 1799 1629 1472 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.0 16.1 16.5 16.7 17.4 18.2 18.5 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.1 117.4 118.6 119.8 121.1 123.4 125.5 127.2 128.9 130.4 131.9 133.3 134.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 11 9 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 29 20 17 11 19 8 10 14 13 1 1 8 6 14 11 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 26. 27. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 12. 12. 11. 10. 7. 5. 3. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 25. 33. 39. 43. 44. 45. 45. 46. 49. 53. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.3 116.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142026 FOURTEEN 09/10/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.73 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.28 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -42.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.36 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 19.9% 16.7% 14.2% 0.0% 20.6% 19.0% 19.5% Logistic: 3.0% 16.3% 6.2% 3.9% 0.9% 4.3% 1.9% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 4.2% 12.5% 7.7% 6.0% 0.3% 8.4% 7.0% 7.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 14.0% SDCON: 2.6% 9.7% 5.3% 3.5% 0.6% 5.2% 5.0% 10.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142026 FOURTEEN 09/10/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##