* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/10/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 39 37 37 39 44 39 30 27 23 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 39 37 37 39 44 39 30 27 23 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 37 34 33 32 32 29 25 22 21 20 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 28 36 41 36 28 20 23 30 26 31 35 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 9 8 6 7 5 7 3 2 -1 0 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 238 237 241 255 275 293 338 351 356 335 327 336 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.0 25.7 25.5 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.5 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 127 127 127 122 119 115 115 118 120 126 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.2 -49.0 -49.6 -50.2 -50.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.8 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.4 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 42 43 41 43 46 50 53 53 55 56 57 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 18 16 15 15 20 16 13 13 13 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 60 60 47 48 74 79 72 80 86 78 80 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 23 13 9 10 20 -11 -25 2 -6 21 27 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -6 0 -2 -1 11 30 4 -1 0 1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1132 1202 1275 1352 1429 1536 1699 1857 1859 1869 1875 1833 1734 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.4 30.7 32.4 33.1 32.8 32.5 32.1 31.4 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.3 169.3 170.2 171.0 171.8 172.1 172.7 174.2 174.5 174.9 175.3 175.3 174.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 6 8 8 4 2 3 3 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -21. -26. -31. -36. -39. -41. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 19. 24. 24. 24. 25. 27. 27. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 6. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -4. -5. -4. -1. -6. -12. -11. -11. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -8. -6. -1. -6. -15. -18. -22. -21. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 29.0 168.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/10/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.43 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 51.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 362.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.50 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.02 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.29 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 15.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/10/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##