* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/10/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 46 45 45 45 46 49 38 30 24 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 48 46 45 45 45 46 49 38 30 24 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 50 48 46 45 43 45 44 38 32 29 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 24 27 33 39 25 25 28 25 29 26 24 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 13 9 7 4 5 1 1 2 -1 0 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 250 242 239 237 256 285 330 338 351 326 311 328 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.4 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 125 126 126 120 118 116 116 116 117 121 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.0 -49.3 -49.1 -48.9 -49.5 -50.1 -50.4 -51.3 -51.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 40 42 44 43 47 49 52 53 53 53 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 21 20 18 18 16 19 22 16 14 12 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 57 63 59 48 53 82 75 72 81 84 80 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 21 26 24 18 58 9 -10 -4 1 -1 30 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -7 -1 0 10 25 14 -3 -2 0 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1042 1110 1183 1273 1363 1499 1634 1807 1843 1868 1885 1839 1737 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.2 29.5 30.5 32.0 33.3 32.9 32.6 32.5 31.9 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 166.9 168.0 169.1 170.0 170.9 171.8 172.2 173.3 174.2 174.8 175.1 175.0 174.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 5 3 2 2 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 759 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -16. -23. -28. -34. -39. -43. -46. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 5. 11. 17. 22. 23. 23. 24. 26. 26. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -11. -14. -16. -15. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -1. -12. -20. -26. -28. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 29.1 166.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/10/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.38 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 47.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 399.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.45 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.01 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.59 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 12.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/10/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##