* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/10/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 50 48 46 45 44 48 43 32 28 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 48 46 45 44 48 43 32 28 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 49 47 44 43 44 41 34 29 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 22 25 28 34 35 23 30 30 27 25 31 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 11 9 7 3 4 4 6 1 2 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 257 247 239 235 249 266 329 338 334 329 306 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.4 25.6 25.7 25.4 25.6 26.0 26.4 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 126 126 127 126 118 119 115 116 121 124 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.6 -49.0 -49.2 -49.0 -49.1 -50.0 -50.3 -50.7 -51.2 -51.6 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.6 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 41 42 44 45 45 49 48 50 51 48 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 20 19 19 16 15 20 19 15 14 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 62 54 62 53 46 58 68 65 74 76 69 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 25 23 22 13 10 38 -5 -25 4 7 -5 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -10 -6 -1 1 7 20 5 -1 0 -2 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 962 1046 1140 1213 1290 1431 1569 1713 1857 1902 1865 1831 1833 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.7 31.3 32.7 33.4 33.1 32.2 31.5 31.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 165.6 166.9 168.2 169.3 170.3 171.6 172.0 172.6 173.9 174.8 175.1 175.2 175.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 7 6 8 7 5 4 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -16. -23. -29. -35. -40. -45. -48. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 22. 23. 24. 26. 26. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -7. -9. -15. -15. -16. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -7. -12. -23. -27. -30. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 29.1 165.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/10/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.35 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 439.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.41 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.01 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.48 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 8.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/10/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##