* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/10/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 38 36 35 35 36 36 24 21 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 38 36 35 35 36 36 24 21 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 42 38 35 33 30 29 30 30 26 23 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 20 22 25 27 40 25 19 23 24 29 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 12 12 12 9 4 0 2 3 0 0 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 265 258 251 238 234 245 285 336 341 344 317 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.4 25.9 25.5 25.6 25.4 25.7 26.0 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 126 127 126 126 120 117 118 115 118 119 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.5 -48.6 -49.0 -49.1 -48.9 -49.5 -50.1 -50.3 -51.1 -51.5 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.8 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 42 41 43 45 44 46 49 52 52 52 47 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 24 21 20 17 15 16 19 13 13 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 78 61 53 61 52 61 78 74 73 87 85 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -23 -4 18 22 24 17 38 10 11 -14 21 -5 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 -4 -7 -11 -5 -1 8 26 20 3 0 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 898 975 1061 1136 1220 1401 1485 1583 1749 1864 1940 1967 1966 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.6 30.4 31.6 33.0 33.4 33.0 32.7 32.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 164.4 165.6 166.8 168.1 169.3 171.3 171.7 171.9 172.8 174.0 175.4 176.0 175.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 6 5 7 6 5 4 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -13. -18. -22. -28. -32. -37. -41. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 18. 22. 22. 22. 23. 25. 27. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -11. -19. -20. -19. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -13. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -21. -24. -26. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 29.1 164.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/10/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.44 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 357.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.50 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.01 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.49 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 12.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/10/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##