* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/09/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 42 39 36 33 32 33 37 41 37 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 48 42 39 36 33 32 33 37 41 37 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 49 44 39 36 29 25 24 24 24 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 26 25 21 23 26 31 33 17 16 27 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 9 8 13 11 7 8 6 1 2 7 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 265 285 279 268 263 247 238 235 327 344 320 288 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.5 26.3 26.6 26.6 26.0 26.4 26.6 26.4 25.9 25.6 25.3 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 127 130 130 123 127 128 126 121 118 115 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.1 -49.0 -48.9 -48.7 -48.8 -49.3 -49.3 -50.3 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -51.0 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.8 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 41 41 40 43 43 45 45 45 51 49 44 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 27 28 28 26 21 18 16 18 21 19 15 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 72 66 71 73 58 49 43 63 69 71 86 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -6 -25 -21 -16 20 6 14 33 8 1 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 9 3 4 -5 -11 0 0 7 8 3 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 542 647 755 833 921 1066 1219 1352 1463 1585 1735 1857 1958 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.7 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.8 29.7 31.1 32.6 33.2 32.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 161.1 161.9 162.7 164.0 165.2 167.7 169.9 171.3 172.0 172.4 173.0 174.1 175.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 10 8 6 6 8 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 5 2 4 3 0 4 7 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 12 CX,CY: -1/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -13. -18. -22. -27. -32. -37. -41. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 16. 16. 18. 20. 22. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -13. -18. -18. -14. -16. -20. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -16. -19. -22. -23. -22. -18. -14. -18. -24. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 26.9 161.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/09/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.37 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 437.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.41 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.09 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.03 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.7 60.4 to 0.0 0.64 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -13.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/09/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##