* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/09/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 51 44 40 37 36 34 34 36 41 38 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 51 44 40 37 36 34 34 36 41 38 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 51 44 39 35 30 25 23 23 24 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 22 27 29 23 28 25 36 16 16 27 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 6 5 11 7 8 6 3 6 7 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 246 267 286 279 265 250 243 243 309 324 320 300 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.6 26.2 26.3 26.8 26.6 26.5 25.8 25.7 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 129 128 130 126 126 130 128 127 120 118 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.3 -48.9 -48.9 -48.9 -48.6 -49.1 -49.3 -50.1 -51.0 -50.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 43 42 42 43 42 45 42 41 46 50 46 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 27 26 25 23 18 16 17 21 20 16 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 100 69 57 61 59 52 43 57 84 94 103 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 -10 -7 -22 -21 9 17 22 54 0 -1 -5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 14 14 7 0 -7 -4 -1 7 11 6 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 409 529 649 750 855 1011 1157 1311 1421 1533 1649 1779 1908 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.7 27.7 28.3 28.8 28.8 28.4 28.4 29.0 30.3 31.7 32.5 32.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 160.9 161.4 161.8 163.0 164.1 166.8 169.2 171.1 172.0 172.4 172.7 173.7 175.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 11 11 10 6 6 7 6 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 5 5 3 3 0 3 8 6 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 13 CX,CY: 0/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -19. -24. -29. -34. -39. -42. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 10. 14. 14. 15. 16. 19. 20. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -11. -17. -18. -13. -13. -17. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -20. -23. -24. -26. -26. -24. -19. -22. -28. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 25.7 160.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/09/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.32 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 473.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.37 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.11 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.03 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.52 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 0.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/09/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##